BlackRock 最新市場概況及影響（僅提供英文版）

In the first two months of 2024, global markets saw performance divergences across asset classes. Global equity markets rallied, supported by resilient economic data and positive corporate earnings.

On the other hand, fixed income underwent some corrections as investors pushed out the timing and magnitude of central bank rate cuts. The stronger-than-expected US CPI report released in February further fueled the ‘higher for longer’ narrative.

US stocks reached new highs with the ‘Magnificent Seven’ driving overall market returns. Strong earnings results for Q4 2023 underpinned sentiment and saw investors downplay US core inflation, which printed above consensus at 3.9% annualised for January.

Elsewhere, Chinese equities rebounded in February after a slew of policy announcements and reports that President Xi Jinping will discuss the nation’s stock market with financial regulators. Japanese equities, on the other hand, continued to remain amongst the best performing markets in 2024, underpinned by the return of inflationary pressures coupled with robust earnings and corporate reforms. 

Fixed income markets faced headwinds as markets repriced yields higher on the back of central banks appearing hesitant to implement rate cuts in the near-term. Over the first two months of 2024, the US 10-year yield rose slightly. Riskier parts of the fixed income market saw mixed performance, with high yield corporate credit indices gaining slightly by the end of February.

Conservative, Balanced and Aggressive Model Portfolios

Performance Commentary

All models posted positive returns on a YTD basis. The conservative model outperformed its benchmark, while the balanced and aggressive models underperformed their respective benchmarks. 

Broad equity exposures were additive to model returns. US equities contributed from both absolute and relative perspectives as US stocks rallied over the period driven mainly by technology stocks. Allocations to Japanese equities continued to post positive returns on both absolute and relative basis as currency weakness was likely seen as a positive alongside robust earnings and corporate reforms.

On the fixed income side, overall bond allocations posted negative returns from an absolute perspective, but helped relatively. Longer-term US Treasuries emerged as significant absolute detractors for the period as the potential stickiness of US inflation lowered investors’ expectations for rate cuts in the near term. 

Source: BlackRock, Morningstar as of 29 Feb 2024; Performance is based on USD total returns with income reinvested and net of total expense ratios but gross of transaction costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Inception date for Conservative, Balanced and Aggressive models is 31 Dec 2014.

** Using Bloomberg Global AGG/MSCI ACWI until 31 Dec 2017, Bloomberg US Universal/MSCI ACWI EUR/GBP Hedged to USD after 31 Dec 2017.

Reoptimisation Commentary

Overall, BlackRock is maintaining a modest risk-on positioning through an overweight in equities. 

Within equities, they are staying overweight in the US as they see the potential for continued outperformance supported by strength of a ‘Goldilocks’ US economy and resilient corporate earnings. Within US equities, BlackRock is adding to their overweight in US technology, due to the sector’s growth potential driven by an ongoing trend in the artificial intelligence (AI) theme.

Sales, earnings, and forward guidance from some of the largest names in tech have unequivocally beaten even the loftiest expectations, giving them comfort in leaning further into this exposure. The speed and magnitude of the rally to start the year has been somewhat unexpected but, importantly, not unwarranted in their view.

Elsewhere in developed markets, BlackRock has further increased exposure to Japan equities, supported by strong earnings growth, shareholder-friendly corporate reforms, and the Bank of Japan’s move towards policy normalisation – not tightening.

In contrast, BlackRock is keeping an underweight in Europe. Despite more attractive valuations, the earnings outlook in Europe looks less favourable compared to the US and Japan. Similarly, they are also maintaining their underweight in emerging markets, preferring to hold more in developed markets given a stronger growth outlook. Lastly, they are reducing their minimum volatility exposure, as the risk of a hard landing slowdown recedes amid robust economic activity in the US.

On the fixed income side, BlackRock is marginally increasing portfolio duration to take advantage of higher long-term yields available after the move up in the first quarter. In the credit space, they are trimming investment-grade credit, where spreads have tightened to multi-year lows, and increasing their allocation to high-yield credit. While spreads have also tightened in high-yield, a strong growth backdrop and moderating default activities supports a higher allocation in BlackRock’s view.

Lastly, BlackRock is adding a small overweight to emerging market debts with a tilt towards government debts, which they believe will be supported by central banks beginning to cut rates and continued deceleration in inflation.

Within alternatives, BlackRock is adding modestly to US inflation-linked bonds to mitigate potential downside risks that may arise from an unexpected increase in inflation, which could adversely impact both duration and equity overweight positions. They are maintaining their allocation in gold given its value-preserving nature.

Very Aggressive Portfolio

Performance Commentary

The very aggressive model posted a positive return, but underperformed its benchmark on a YTD basis. 

US equities contributed from an absolute perspective, but detracted relatively. Minimum volatility exposures experienced relatively less upside compared to market-cap holdings as equity markets continued to show strength. BlackRock’s overweight positions in Japan posted positive returns on both absolute and relative basis as currency weakness was likely seen as a positive alongside robust earnings and corporate reforms.

Source: BlackRock, Morningstar as of 29 Feb 2024; Performance is based on USD total returns with income reinvested and net of total expense ratios but gross of transaction costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

Inception date for Very Aggressive model is 31 Oct 2016.

** Using Bloomberg Global AGG/MSCI ACWI until 31 Dec 2017, Bloomberg US Universal/MSCI ACWI EUR/GBP Hedged to USD after 31 Dec 2017.

Reoptimisation Commentary

Within equities, BlackRock is staying overweight in the US, as they see the potential for continued outperformance supported by strength of a ‘Goldilocks’ US economy and resilient corporate earnings. Within US equities, they are adding to their overweight in US technology due to the sector’s growth potential driven by ongoing trend in the artificial intelligence (AI) theme.

Sales, earnings, and forward guidance from some of the largest names in tech have unequivocally beaten even the loftiest expectations, giving them comfort in leaning further into this exposure. The speed and magnitude of the rally to start the year has been somewhat unexpected but, importantly, not unwarranted in their view.

Elsewhere in developed markets, BlackRock has further increased exposure to Japan equities, supported by strong earnings growth, shareholder-friendly corporate reforms, and the Bank of Japan’s move towards policy normalisation – not tightening.

In contrast, BlackRock is keeping an underweight in Europe. Despite more attractive valuations, the earnings outlook in Europe looks less favourable compared to the US and Japan. Similarly, they are also maintaining their underweight in emerging markets, preferring to hold more in developed markets given a stronger growth outlook. Lastly, BlackRock is reducing their minimum volatility exposure, as the risk of a hard landing slowdown recedes amid robust economic activity in the US.

Source: BlackRock, Performance commentary as of 29 Feb 2024. Rebalance date is 15 Apr 2024.

This information should not be relied upon as investment advice, research, or a recommendation by BlackRock regarding (i) the iShares Funds, (ii) the use or suitability of the model portfolios or (iii) any security in particular. Only an investor and their financial advisor know enough about their circumstances to make an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.

For StashAway General Investing portfolios that are powered by BlackRock, BlackRock provides StashAway with non-binding asset allocation guidance. StashAway manages and provides these portfolios to you, meaning BlackRock does not provide any service or product to you, nor has BlackRock considered the suitability of its asset allocations against your individual needs, objectives, and risk tolerance. As such, the asset allocations that BlackRock provides do not constitute investment advice, or an offer to sell or buy any securities.

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