BlackRock 最新市場概況及影響（僅提供英文版）

Global markets experienced fluctuations in performance during June and July.

In June, global equity markets continued their rally, with the S&P 500 reaching new all-time highs. The Magnificent Seven helped propel US stocks to fresh record highs amid their dominance in artificial intelligence (AI). Bond yields fell over the month, helped by moderating inflation. The US CPI release for May, which was released in June, showed the slowest monthly core CPI since August 2021, raising hopes that interest rate cuts were on the horizon.

In July, global markets saw a partial reversal. While developed market equities rallied to all-time highs in the first half of the month, stocks pared gains in the second half of July amid economic growth concerns – particularly in the US – and lacklustre quarterly tech earnings. Expectations for interest rate cuts also saw small-cap stocks outperforming large-caps across the period. Meanwhile, sovereign bonds recorded positive returns as softer inflation data cemented hopes for a less restrictive monetary policy stance.

Conservative, Balanced and Aggressive Model Portfolios

Performance Commentary

The models delivered positive returns but underperformed their respective benchmarks in July.

Broad equity exposures were positive on an absolute basis but detracted relatively. Broad US equities were the largest contributors over the period. The asset class performed well, driven by strong earnings results across sectors. However, while broad US equities have outperformed, US technology stocks in particular have lagged and detracted. This was driven by a market rotation from growth stocks to interest-rate sensitive asset classes as investors were expecting the first rate cut to be in September, driven by softer US CPI and labour market data.

On the fixed income side, overall bond allocations posted positive returns from an absolute perspective but detracted relatively. US Treasuries emerged as significant contributors on both absolute and relative basis. Over the period, US Treasuries did well on the back of investors expecting the Fed to begin cutting rates soon.

Source: BlackRock, Morningstar as of 31 Jul 2024; Performance is based on USD total returns with income reinvested and net of total expense ratios but gross of transaction costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

*Inception date for Conservative, Balanced and Aggressive models is 31 Dec 2014.

** Using Bloomberg Global AGG/MSCI ACWI until 31 Dec 2017, Bloomberg US Universal/MSCI ACWI EUR/GBP Hedged to USD after 31 Dec 2017.

Reoptimisation Commentary

Given the recent surge in market volatility, BlackRock is taking steps to rebalance their models to stay ahead of evolving conditions. Their focus is on several factors, including the upcoming US election, the most recent monetary policies by the Bank of Japan, and the potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in September.

2024 is a historic year for elections, with major elections taking place globally, from Taiwan and India to the EU, UK and US. With the US Presidential election approaching in November, BlackRock believes this is an opportune time to adjust their portfolios in anticipation of elevated market movements. Historically, equity markets tend to exhibit increased volatility during Presidential election years*. In light of this, they are reducing their overweight in overall equities. Within equities, they are modestly reducing their overweight in US equities, while bringing European equities up to a neutral position from an underweight, reflecting improving fundamentals and earning outlooks in the region. Additionally, they are trimming the overweight in emerging markets as part of this risk reduction.

Early August saw significant market volatility in Japan, with the yen surging and Japanese stocks experiencing their worst three-day stretch on record. This prompted the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to retract a hawkish policy shift and exhibit more caution in normalising policy going forward. While BlackRock is trimming their overweight in Japanese equities as part of their strategy to lower equity risk, they are maintaining some exposure in currency-hedged stocks to benefit from the interest rate differential and protect the portfolios from potential volatility in currency markets.

BlackRock’s adjustments on the fixed income side reflect recent developments in the Fed’s policy direction. With inflation showing clear signs of inflecting lower and growth resiliency being called into question, it is clear the Fed needs to recalibrate policy rates as current rates are too high relative to the macro backdrop. Having this in mind, they are adding slightly to duration, while closely monitoring if further changes need to be made in the upcoming months. Within the asset class, they are cutting their exposures in floating rate bonds and shifting back to short-duration treasuries amid the declining interest rate cycle. On the credit side, they are taking less active risk and preferring higher quality holdings given tight spreads at the moment.

Within the alternative basket, BlackRock is trimming their Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) exposures as a result of decelerating inflation.

*Source: BlackRock Investment Institute.

Very Aggressive Portfolio

Performance Commentary

The equity model delivered positive returns but underperformed its benchmark in July.

Broad US equities were the largest contributors for the period on an absolute basis. The asset class performed well, driven by strong earnings results across sectors. However, while broad US equities have outperformed, US technology stocks in particular have lagged and detracted. This was driven by a market rotation from growth stocks to interest-rate sensitive asset classes as investors were expecting the first rate cut to be in September, driven by softer US CPI and labour market data.

Source: BlackRock, Morningstar as of 31 Jul 2024; Performance is based on USD total returns with income reinvested and net of total expense ratios but gross of transaction costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

*Inception date for Very Aggressive model is 31 Oct 2016.

** Using Bloomberg Global AGG/MSCI ACWI until 31 Dec 2017, Bloomberg US Universal/MSCI ACWI EUR/GBP Hedged to USD after 31 Dec 2017.

Reoptimisation Commentary

2024 is a historic year for elections, with major elections taking place globally, from Taiwan and India to the EU, UK and US. With the US Presidential election approaching in November, BlackRock believes this is an opportune time to adjust their portfolios in anticipation of elevated market movements. Historically, equity markets tend to exhibit increased volatility during Presidential election years.* In light of this, they are modestly reducing their overweight in US equities, while bringing European equities up to a neutral position from an underweight, reflecting improving fundamentals and earning outlooks in the region. Additionally, they are trimming the overweight in emerging markets.

Early August saw significant market volatility in Japan, with the yen surging and Japanese stocks experiencing their worst three-day stretch on record. This prompted the Bank of Japan (BoJ) to retract a hawkish policy shift and exhibit more caution in normalising policy going forward. While BlackRock is trimming their overweight in Japanese equities as part of their strategy to lower equity risk, they are maintaining some exposure in currency-hedged stocks to benefit from the interest rate differential and protect the portfolios from potential volatility in currency markets.

Source: BlackRock, Performance commentary as of 31 Jul 2024. Rebalance date is 29 Aug 2024.

This information should not be relied upon as investment advice, research, or a recommendation by BlackRock regarding (i) the iShares Funds, (ii) the use or suitability of the model portfolios or (iii) any security in particular. Only an investor and their financial advisor know enough about their circumstances to make an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.

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