風險自選投資組合 Powered by BlackRock® | 2025 年 2 月前瞻調倉報告

BlackRock 最新市場概況及影響（僅提供英文版）

Global markets rallied in the fourth quarter of 2024 as clear US election outcomes and central bank rate cuts underpinned investor sentiment while economic data remained positive. Trump’s victory lifted US shares on the expectation that his policy program would boost growth, lower taxes, and cut regulation. The Fed cut rates by 50 basis points over the quarter, but triggered a stock market sell-off at the December meeting after sticky inflation prompted them to scale back expectations for the number of rate cuts in 2025.

In January, markets continued their bumpy – though upward-trending – ride. There were sizable sell-offs in equity and bond markets reacting to strong economic data releases, the emergence of China’s cost-effective DeepSeek AI model potentially threatening US global dominance in AI development, and tariff announcements on Canada, Mexico, and China. The events saw eventual rebounds in a seesaw month. Better-than-expected CPI prints eased some fears, however, the Fed maintained its hawkish tone from December and left rates on hold at its January meeting.

Conservative, Balanced and Aggressive Portfolios

Performance Commentary

The portfolios outperformed their respective benchmarks over the last quarter of 2024 and in January. Overall, portfolios with higher allocation to equities posted higher outperformance.

US equity exposures were the top contributors to absolute performance over Q4 2024 and in January, largely driven by market expectations of Trump's pro-growth policies and strong economic fundamentals. However, BlackRock’s targeted exposure to US technology sector equities detracted in January following the release of China's cost-effective DeepSeek AI model, which raised investor concerns over US competitive advantage in the technological space and triggered a sell-off in AI-related stocks. Their position in gold also turned positive in January as investors turned to safe haven assets in response to heightened geopolitical tensions and market volatility.

Overall fixed income exposures detracted on absolute terms in Q4 2024. Concerns over the inflationary nature of potential policies under Trump’s presidency, as well as the Fed’s hawkish tone in December, pushed 2025 rate cut expectations lower and yields higher. This saw a reversal in January, where softer-than-expected CPI print prompted a broad-based rally that was reflected in BlackRock’s portfolios. High-yield bonds, which they added back to in their previous rebalance, were key contributors on the fixed income side in January amid tightening spreads.

Source: BlackRock, Morningstar as of 31 Jan 2025. Performance is based on USD total returns with income reinvested and net of total expense ratios but gross of transaction costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

* Inception date for Conservative, Balanced and Aggressive portfolios is 31 Dec 2014.

** Using Bloomberg Global AGG/world equity index until 31 Dec 2017, Bloomberg US Universal/world equity index EUR/GBP hedged to USD after 31 Dec 2017.

Reoptimisation Commentary

2025 presents a blend of ongoing challenges and opportunities from 2024 and a new era under the Trump administration. The battle between the Fed and inflation continues, as inflation remains above the Fed’s target. The economic landscape is further complicated by new policies introduced by Trump’s inauguration. In just the first few weeks of his presidency, we have already seen a flurry of executive orders and imposition (and subsequent delays) of new trade tariffs, igniting an additional element of uncertainty over global supply chain dynamics and driving significant market volatility. Remaining nimble and flexible in managing portfolios will continue to be key as we navigate policy shifts and implications for markets.

Given increased uncertainty, BlackRock is trimming their equity overweight in their upcoming rebalance. While they remain positive on equities, heightened volatility surrounding policy and currency movements have prompted them to dial back slightly on their risk-taking. Within equities, they remain positive on the US on the back of the robust economic backdrop and earnings growth. However, they are trimming exposure to the US technology sector, as the release of China’s DeepSeek R1 model as a cheaper alternative to AI hardware components could be a drag on technology companies’ margins. Given heightened uncertainty over trade policies, they are also re-introducing some minimum volatility exposures to cushion the portfolio against market volatility.

Elsewhere in developed markets, BlackRock is adding to European equities, closing out the underweight to a more neutral stance. The potential end of the Russia-Ukraine war could be positive for the region, along with an increasingly accommodative ECB and attractive relative valuations.

Within emerging markets, BlackRock is maintaining a small overweight to China, with the view that DeepSeek-related IT developments could be a positive for Chinese technology companies. While tariff tensions remain a headwind, softer-than-expected tariff levels make them comfortable taking some active risk here.

On the fixed income side, BlackRock remains broadly neutral on duration as changing rate expectations are likely to keep interest rates volatile. As a reflection of their risk-on positioning, they have a slight preference for high-yield bonds relative to investment-grade credit, though they still prefer to take the majority of their active risk in equities. Considering market expectations of fewer rate cuts and the recent higher-than-expected CPI print, they are also adding floating rate bonds to their portfolio to protect against interest rate risk.

Within alternatives, BlackRock is trimming their allocation to gold. Recent tariff-related fears have spurred a rally in safe-haven assets. Hence, they are taking some profit here while maintaining some exposure as a portfolio diversifier. As inflationary pressures persist, they continue to allocate to inflation-protected securities, but they prefer shorter-duration exposures for lower rate sensitivity and a better hedge against inflation.

Very Aggressive Portfolio

Performance Commentary

The equity portfolio delivered positive absolute and relative performance over the last quarter of 2024 and in January.

US equity exposures were top contributors to absolute performance over Q4 2024, driven by optimism around the clear US election outcome and strong economic data. BlackRock’s underweight in European equities contributed to relative performance alongside political turmoil and concerns about the economic outlook.

In January, while broad US exposures continued to be supportive, BlackRock’s targeted exposure to US technology sector equities detracted following the release of China's cost-effective DeepSeek AI model, which raised investor concerns over US competitive advantage in the technological space and triggered a sell-off in AI-related stocks.

Source: BlackRock, Morningstar as of 31 Jan 2025. Performance is based on USD total returns with income reinvested and net of total expense ratios but gross of transaction costs. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

* Inception date for Very Aggressive portfolio is 31 Oct 2016.

** Using Bloomberg Global AGG/world equity index until 31 Dec 2017, Bloomberg US Universal/world equity index EUR/GBP hedged to USD after 31 Dec 2017.

Reoptimisation Commentary

BlackRock remains positive on the US on the back of the robust economic backdrop and earnings growth. However, they are trimming exposure to the US technology sector, as the release of China’s DeepSeek R1 model as a cheaper alternative to AI hardware components could be a drag on technology companies’ margins. Given heightened uncertainty over trade policies, they are also re-introducing some minimum volatility exposures to cushion the portfolio against market volatility.

Elsewhere in developed markets, BlackRock is trimming the underweight in European equities. The potential end of the Russia-Ukraine war could be positive for the region, along with an increasingly accommodative European Central Bank and attractive relative valuations. They continue to overweight Japanese equities but are reducing their currency-hedged exposures due to the "safe haven" characteristic of the JPY.

Within emerging markets, BlackRock is maintaining a small overweight to China, with the view that DeepSeek-related IT developments could be a positive for Chinese technology companies. While tariff tensions remain a headwind, softer-than-expected tariff levels make them comfortable taking some active risk here. They are taking profits from our exposures to the gold producer sector, which has rallied strongly year-to-date and outperformed the price of gold.

Source: BlackRock, performance commentary as of 31 Jan 2025. Rebalance date is 27 Feb 2025.

This information should not be relied upon as investment advice, research, or a recommendation by BlackRock regarding (i) the iShares Funds, (ii) the use or suitability of the model portfolios or (iii) any security in particular. Only an investor and their financial advisor know enough about their circumstances to make an investment decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results and should not be the sole factor of consideration when selecting a product or strategy.

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